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Вторая международная конференция

think of below trend line yeilds for

2016/17 crops in North America and

S.A. for the upcoming crops. This

primarily remains fear driven and

the implications on Supply/Demand is

the biggest question mark. One main

topic of conversation remained the

impact of excessive rains in Argentina,

which is the world’s largest exporter of

soybean meal.

Third, fund (speculative) managers

continue to monitor Janet Yellen,

the Chair of the U.S. FED and what

her actions as well as other global

economic leaders may be. This has

spurred weakness in the U.S. dollar,

thus the reason for speculators to buy

commodities. It should be noted that

the USD index has been 8% weaker

since the start of 2016. As a general feel

for the commodity complex, since that

time Crude oil has increased +77% and

Gold has increased +23%. When you

add the weather risk, this creates the

perfect market for speculative buyers.

The above mentioned topics come

into play when fundamentals and

facts point to a bearish market, its

Price Volatility

here to stay?

Traders have watched oilseed prices increase, more recently since

the beginning of March we have seen Chicago soybeans increase

+23%, Rapeseeds +10%, Black Sea Sunseeds +11%, Chicago Soybean

meal +33%, Chicago Soybean oil +13%, Black Sea Sunoil +7%.

Fundamental justifications for such prices moves have been hard

to find, but a few outside factors have been largely at play.



Commodity Risk

Manager, Vice

President Eastern

Europe / Black

Sea Region, INTL

FCStone Financial

Inc- FCM Division

A u t h o r :

November 2016 CME Futures

just that the impact of weather can

potentially have the largest influence

on oilseed fundamentals. Currently

Global soybean carryout per the most

recent USDA numbers have increased

+27% for 2014/15 and 2% for 2015/16

while China demand has increased

+11% and 6% respectively. Global

Sunflower seed carryout per the

USDA have decreased –6% for 2014/15

and –36% for 2015/16, sunoil stocks

–24% for 2014/15 and –20% for 2015/16.

The point is, the market remains

focused on potential weather issues

and what this means to the market

when looking at Supply and Demand,

the soybean market and thus the

oilseed sector.

Conclusion: We are entering into the

growing season with plenty fears, this

mainly weather focused at this point.

Typically fears are greeted by some

sort of facts, but money flows into the

commodity complex has ignored this

and are positioning themselves ahead

of the growing season, protection of

your market risks remain crucial as

we enter the growing season.


irst, outside support for the oilseed

sector started with palm oil in early

March as El-Nino pushed production

fears for palm oil production and the

implications of such on the soybean

oil and sunoil demand prospects.

Second, there has been a big fear in the

marketplace of a weather pattern shift

fromEl-Nino to La-Nina and the impact

on yeilds across the world as a result.

Big picture, traders look for adverse

yield implications and continue to

Market volatility is a term

we should all be familiar

with, as we have witnessed

it thus far in 2016.