By and large, the FMCG* market has shown a 13.6% growth by value. This figure is below the 15.2% inflation rate in MAT** July 2015 compared to July 2014.
The fast-moving consumer goods market is predominantly made up of foodstuffs, which account for 83% of the consumer basket. The balance is comprised of personal (15%) and home (2%) care goods. Market growth drivers in value terms are the larger average bills influenced by changing retail prices. The slight increase in volume was due to the higher frequency of purchases brought about by purchases on promotion.
By and large, the foodstuff market grew by 13.2%, in value terms, and by 0.5%, in volume terms.
The year 2014 saw spending rise across all product categories inside the food basket. At that, by volume, only the segments of beverages, dairy products, groceries, and baby food have posted an increase. In 2015, the largest increment by value was recorded in the segments of groceries (+22.6%) and pet food (+21%).
The highest share of the food basket in value terms is that of meat (22%). In 2014, the largest increment in value was observed in the category of dairy products, mainly brought about by price hikes in the segment. In 2015, this category increased by a paltry 2% in volume terms, mainly due to an increase in the consumption of necessities such as milk, curd, and cream. By far the largest increase this year is observed in the category of “processed and sausage cheeses”. At the same time yellow and white cheeses saw sales decline. An obvious sign that consumers are shifting towards the lower-priced product categories.
The meat market slumped slightly this year (-2%) as a result of falling consumption of beef and deli meats. Conversely, the consumption of lower-cost poultry is increasing. Research findings have indicated that consumers are shifting from beef mainly towards poultry and pork and, to a lesser degree, cooked sausages and frankfurters.
The category of fish and sea products in MAT July 2015 saw volumes fall 9.6% from last year, mainly as a result of lower purchase frequency. The largest drop was observed in the consumption of sea products (-22.6%), salted and smoked (-13.3%), fresh and frozen (-12.5%) fish. However, in the herring segment purchase volumes picked up (+5.3%). There was also a slight increase in the consumption of crab meat (+3.9%), cheap caviar and caviar butter (+2.2%). Consumers of expensive fish products are apparently substituting them more often with poultry, inexpensive semi-finished meat products, canned fish and meat.
The market of fresh vegetables is sufficiently stable, having gained 1.8% this year. The key drivers were low-price necessities, namely: potatoes (+5.7%), cabbages (+10.1%), and beetroots (+9.2%). Consumption of the more pricey vegetables went down at the same time - eggplants (-12.2%), bell pepper (-5.0%), and tomatoes (-4.5%).
The volume of the bakery goods category in MAT July 2015 has remained nearly flat because the dynamics of key consumption indicators are stable. This segment remained almost unchanged from the last year due to a trade off between the rising cheaper segment (pan bread and long loaf) and the falling expensive segment (buns). The latter saw a dramatic spike in prices (41%) resulting in a 7% fall in the frequency and volume of purchases.
This means that the consumer is currently rationalizing the consumer basket migrating into the less expensive product range: from expensive cheeses to cheap processed and sausage cheeses; from beef and deli meats to poultry; from fish and sea products to more basic products (poultry, herring, canned fish and meat).
The share of the modern trade channels (MT) has maintained its intensive growth which amounted to 19% as of July 2015 compared to the same indicator in 2014. Highest growth rates are posted by discount stores (+23.7%) and hypermarkets (+18.7%). While still a small share of the market, on-line trade has the highest growth rates (+46.8%). The highest MT and promotion share among regions is observed in St. Petersburg (MT share 73%) and Moscow (MT share 70%). In St. Petersburg the share of promotion in modern trade channels is the highest (24.6%).
If the meat and dairy sectors are looked into separately, then the dairy category will be found to have 66% of its sales generated in the modern trade channels.
The top five leaders are the Magnit discount store, Pyaterochka, Auchan, Lenta and the Magnit hypermarket.
Sales of the top 10 most popular chains amount to 32% in the FMCG market. Furthermore, the Magnit discount store retains its leading position among retailers.
Our forecast is that the modern trade channels will continue growing further.